Two different of my friends that are significantly to the left of me have asked what the fuck is up with the Republican primaries, so what the hell, it’s postfodder. Most of y’all are on the inside perspective on this but thanks to this blog being rampantly eclectic (or completely unfocused, pick one) I know there’s a fair chunk that aren’t, too.
It is not, whatever it may look like from the outside, that the Republican party can’t make up its mind or is sharply divided on the subject of which candidate is awesome. That’s not the case at all. It’s that with some small minority exceptions it’s made up its mind long ago that all of them are awful, and it’s now a hair-pulling fight which one of them is least awful and/or the best queasy alternative to a second Obama term. Conservative pundits are torn between tearing down one of the three, defending them on “he’s not THAT bad… Obama/his competitors are worse” terms, or fantasizing about a late entrant into the race even though we’re way too far down the primaries for that to be even remotely realistic.
Since my liberal friends seem to have no difficulties whatsoever figuring out what the hell Ron Paul is doing here and why he’s still in the race, we’re going to stick to Santorum, Gingrich, and Romney. If you are a Democrat or a leans-blue and you remember the 2004 primaries, it basically breaks down like this: Mitt Romney is John Kerry, Newt Gingrich is John Edwards, Rick Santorum is Howard Dean, and Ron Paul is Wesley Clark. (Actually, nobody but Ron Paul is Ron Paul, but they’re both controversial dark-horse candidates, so.) None of my liberal friends seem confused about why Paul is in the race and why he’s doing better than logic says he should, so we’ll concentrate on the other three.
Mitt Romney is in the race because he’s paid his dues, he’s white, he’s managed not to publically fuck any dogs or little boys, he had a more or less successful term as a governor of some state or another (he’d like Republican voters to forget which one and what he did while he was there), and It Is His Turn, Dammit. His major drawback is that he doesn’t have any clear principles or beliefs at all beyond really wanting to be President, and thus comes across as a political weathervane whose governing policy is essentially for sale. This leads to conservatives thinking he’s basically Obama and liberals thinking he’s basically Bush and political junkies who’ve been following him long enough to be really curious if there is even a personality under there or just iron public discipline, good hair, and tooth whitener. His major selling point is that thanks to that iron discipline, he doesn’t suffer any mortal political wounds either. This means that outside of immediate family and the sort of Mormon that thinks of politics as a team sport, all other Republicans break down into Team Anybody But Mitt and Team Oh God Look At The Alternatives.
Newt Gingrich is in the race because he’s an egomaniac who quite rightly recognizes the field for its incredible weakness and dearth of strong leadership. Gingrich’s major positive is a very strong background in running the political game for the Republican party, which is also a pretty major drawback as most voters are heartily sick of lifelong Washington insiders. He’s also good at debate, which pretty much no one aside from political wonks cares about unless someone is really *terrible*. His major negatives are that he’s essentially a technocrat with red pinstripes rather than blue, that he spent most of the Clinton years irritating moderates, and also that he has less charisma than an albino ferret with distemper. Among Team Anybody But Mitt, Gingrich is largely preferred by conservative policy wonks who think character is irrelevant and good debating skills speak to good leadership skills.
Rick Santorum is the only candidate in the race whose beliefs and policies appear to be clear, consistent, and based on principle. The major problem with him is that his principles appear to be based on deep tribalism and disgust with anyone who is not white, male (or female with deeply internalized patriarchal values), middle to upper class, straight, conservative, and strongly fundamentalist Christian*. To that end, his plans for America appear to involve a sweaty grip of For Your Own Good, which puts off conservatives with libertarian leanings, everybody with a frank view of their own inner sinner, and just about anyone else who is not of his in-group, which is most people. He also has the charisma problem, though he brings to mind more of an unpleasant dog who licks your hand before biting your ankle. Of Team Anybody But Mitt, traditionally right-wing social conservatives who fit within his demographics are the most likely to support him.
So there you have it. None of them has particularly large pools of voters who actually LIKE them, but depending on said voter’s views overall there’s a lot of diversity in who is hated most or least. And we’ll probably wind up with Romney by default, and it will probably go exactly like Kerry did.
Clearer?
*I had identified him as Protestant, turns out he’s Catholic and I had him in the wrong conservative-Christian-patriarchal box. Thanks to Chris Byrne in comments for correcting me.